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The Climate Prediction Center says there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 69 percent chance it beats every event in the record back to 1950. Alberta is looking at a winter about 2C milder. Heating demand is the bid that was supposed to save AECO.
As of August 20 the calendar is turning. Cooling demand fades. Production is still near record. LNG feedgas is still missing Freeport. The winter curve has a premium. The prompt does not. That gap is the trade.
September 11, 2026
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September 9, 2026
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September 1, 2026
August 28, 2026
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June 17, 2025
June 12, 2025