Ottawa stepped back from gas plants. The AESO cap did not move
Wednesday's Physical Activities Regulations amendments take fossil fuel-fired power generating facilities off the federal Impact Assessment Act Project List. Ottawa said those plants have been screening out of the federal process anyway, and that provincial regimes can handle them. The Crown consultation duty remains.
That is a federal list change. It does not add megawatts in Alberta. Capital Power Corporation (TSX: CPX) signed a long-term energy supply agreement in July for 250 megawatts with Meta Platforms for a data centre in Sturgeon County. In-service is still the back half of 2028. Capital Power's second-quarter release treated the contract as a milestone, not as 2026 generation.
Alberta has restricted large AI data-centre access to the provincial grid until 2028 and has told developers to bring their own gas-fired supply. Capital Power has also said it is talking with the Alberta Electric System Operator about the 466 megawatt per-unit contribution limit that keeps Genesee from putting its full 1,857 megawatts onto the system at once.
TransAlta has a separate Keephills data-centre memorandum with CPP Investments and Brookfield. None of those files is a 2026 watt.
Neutral read
CPX and TA are on the listed power list. Banks were skipped. Fossil plants off the Project List and a 2028 Meta load are the facts. Write this as process plus contracted load, not as a 2026 Alberta price spike. Watch AESO's unit-cap talks and whether Meta's plant is actually behind-the-fence gas.