The old map was north to south. That map is aging
For most of the last two decades, surplus Western Canadian gas cleared into the United States. Chicago, the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest. AECO was a basis story against Henry Hub. That trade is not dead. It is smaller than it used to be, and it is no longer the only door.
Rystad data in the August 20 AGA weekly had pipeline imports from Canada at 3.9 Bcf per day for the week ending August 19. That was down 8.4 percent from the week before and 15.0 percent below the same week in 2025. Earlier in August, desk notes still had Canadian imports around 5.2 Bcf per day. The direction of travel is lower.
Some of that is weather. Some of that is U.S. production so strong the Midwest does not need as much Canadian help. Some of that is Kitimat. Gas that used to head south is heading west to a dock that pays an Asian netback.
Mexico is the other new arrow
U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.5 Bcf per day that same week, down a little from the prior week but 2.2 percent above a year ago. EIA expects pipeline exports to average 9.6 Bcf per day in 2026 and 10.0 in 2027, up from 9.5 in 2025.
The new name on that tape is Energia Costa Azul on Mexico's Pacific coast. First cargo went out July 8. Nameplate is about 0.4 Bcf per day. The gas is Permian, not Montney. Mexico is also adding gas-fired power plants. EIA says those plants plus Costa Azul are why southbound U.S. pipe is growing even while the Canada-to-U.S. line is shrinking.
Read that twice. The Permian is now feeding a Pacific LNG plant through Mexico. Western Canada is feeding a Pacific LNG plant through Kitimat. Two basins, two docks, less meeting in the middle of the continent. That is a structural change, not a weekly wiggle.
What it means for prices
A smaller Canada-to-U.S. flow can cut two ways. If U.S. demand is soft and U.S. production is record-high, losing a bit of Canadian import does not lift Henry Hub. The U.S. is long without the extra molecules. If Kitimat and, later, Cedar and Woodfibre keep pulling west, AECO can disconnect a little from the Midwest. Disconnect can mean a better netback. It can also mean a trapped basin if the Pacific plants go down and the southbound pipe is already nominated elsewhere.
Costa Azul is small. Treat it that way. 0.4 Bcf per day is not a Permian reprice by itself. It is a proof of concept that Permian gas can leave west without touching a U.S. liquefaction train. Golden Pass and the Gulf plants still dominate U.S. exports. Costa Azul is the western leak.
The Canadian interest
Watch the weekly Canada-to-U.S. number the way you used to watch AECO-Chicago basis. If it keeps printing in the high 3s instead of the 5s, the basin is choosing the Pacific, or the U.S. is declining the gas, or both. Pair it with Kitimat loadings. Pair it with Coastal GasLink nominations.
And do not confuse Mexico's Pacific cargo with Canada's. A ship leaving Baja is a Permian story. A ship leaving Kitimat is a Montney story. They both show up as "North American LNG to Asia" in a global table. They do not show up in the same wellhead price.
The continent is still connected. It is less of a single market than it was when every surplus Mcf in Dawson Creek had one job, get to the United States. That job is being split. West. South. And, when Freeport is running, onto a ship from the Gulf. The molecules are the same. The map is not.