The wells did not get the memo about $2.80
EIA's Today in Energy note, built off the August Short-Term Energy Outlook, is the production story without the adjectives. U.S. marketed natural gas is on track to average 122.5 billion cubic feet a day in 2026. That beats the 118.5 record from 2025. First-half 2026 already ran 121.3 Bcf per day, 4 percent, or 4.6 Bcf per day, above the same stretch last year.
Most of the growth is two places. The Permian in Texas and New Mexico. The Haynesville in Louisiana and East Texas. Those are different businesses that happen to make the same molecule.
Permian gas is a byproduct. Haynesville gas is the point
Permian operators drill for oil. The gas comes up because that is how the rock works. When WTI is in the mid-$80s, as it is this week, nobody shuts a Permian well because Henry Hub is $2.77. The oil pays the well. The gas is leftover that has to go somewhere. That is why associated gas keeps showing up in the storage report no matter what the prompt does.
Haynesville is the opposite. Those wells are 10,500 to 13,500 feet. They cost more. Operators are there for the gas. EIA says Haynesville output rose 1.1 Bcf per day, about 7 percent, in the first half versus last year, and it forecasts a 9 percent gain, 1.3 Bcf per day, for 2026 as a whole.
The agency also says Henry Hub averages $3.44 this year, down 8 cents, or 2 percent, from last year. At that price, EIA still calls Haynesville drilling economic. Location is the other reason the rigs stay. The play sits next to Gulf Coast LNG terminals and the industrial load along the Louisiana-Texas coast. When Freeport is running, Haynesville is a short haul to a ship. When Freeport is down, that same gas is a short haul to a storage field. Either way, the basin is wired for the water.
Why this matters on a $2.70 tape
A lot of people look at the prompt and wait for the rig count to collapse. Baker Hughes had U.S. rigs at 593 for the week ending August 14, up five, with gas-directed rigs doing most of the work. The collapse is not here. Associated gas does not care. Haynesville, at least on EIA's math, can live with a $3 handle.
That is the trap in this market. The price is telling you there is too much gas. The production data is telling you more is coming. Those two sentences can both be true for a long time when half the new supply is tied to oil and the other half is tied to an LNG coastline.
Canada already knows this movie
Montney and Duvernay associated gas is the Canadian version of the Permian leftover. Liquids pay the bill. AECO takes the residue. Haynesville is closer to a dry-gas Montney that actually has a dock next door. Kitimat is that dock for Canada, and it is still smaller than the basin.
If you need a single number from this note, take 122.5. That is the marketed call. Dry gas in the same outlook is 111.2. Either way it is a record. Records do not clear themselves because Texas got hot for a week.