The plant is built. The quarter is not the exit rate
Advantage (TSX: AAV) reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 30. Production averaged 70,611 boe/d: 347.8 MMcf/d of gas and 12,650 barrels a day of liquids. That is down 13 percent from the first quarter after a planned 21-day Glacier Gas Plant turnaround. Liquids were 18 percent of volumes and 67 percent of sales, at $113.37 a barrel realized. Adjusted funds flow was $88.8 million, or $0.53 a share. Cash from operations was $107.3 million. Net capital was $88.1 million. Net debt was $560.2 million, roughly flat with year-end 2025.
The operational line is infrastructure. The 75 MMcf/d Progress Gas Plant came on time and on budget before the Glacier outage. Management says major projects in the three-year plan are now done. Glacier wells brought on in 2026 averaged peak IP30 of 16.4 MMcf/d raw. A three-well Valhalla Montney pad averaged 1,375 boe/d IP30 sales per well, 44 percent liquids. Direct AECO exposure is about 12 percent for the rest of 2026 and 16 percent in 2027 after hedges and diversification. About 48 percent of second-half gas is hedged.
90,000 is an exit, not a quarterly average
Advantage says it left the quarter at about 90,000 boe/d and wants to hold that through the end of 2027. Operating costs are aimed at about $5.00 a boe in the second half. On current prices it wants net debt of $400 million to $500 million in the second half and buybacks of up to 5 percent of the shares. On June 30 it moved to a covenant-based $650 million facility maturing June 2029.
Do not staple Entropy's Glacier CCS phase 2 to the gas print. That sits in the subsidiary and is funded by Entropy's partners.
Neutral read
AAV is on the listed producer list. Banks were skipped. 70,611 boe/d is the quarter. 90,000 is the exit talk. Progress being on is the new fact. Watch whether second-half volumes actually hold 90,000, whether operating costs print near $5.00, and whether debt gets into the $400 million to $500 million band while AECO stays cheap.