One weld in Wisconsin is the Canadian tape
Enbridge's September 10 Line 5 update kept a September 12 return-to-service goal. The NGL line has been isolated since August 25. Keyera has already cut 2026 Marketing realized margin guidance to $320 million to $350 million and put about $30 million of that trim on this outage.
If the bypass holds tomorrow, the outage is roughly 18 days and deferred Sarnia volumes can start to clear. If it slips again, the $30 million number is the floor, not the cap. That is the listed-midstream print. The rest of the Canadian energy tape is waiting on it.
Oil is not the story. WTI has been sitting in the mid-$80s. Canadian Natural's dividend record date is today. Suncor's CFO chair changes Sunday. Those are calendar items. They do not reprice the basin.
Gas is still long. Henry Hub is under $3. AECO is near C$1.48 per gigajoule. LNG Canada is running at Kitimat. Freeport has been the U.S. feedgas hole. Europe and Asia have been paying something like $21. That split has been the book since August. Friday does not change it unless Line 5 stays down and NGL mix backs up in Alberta.