The second lift this year. Same range on Thursday
Whitecap Resources (TSX: WCP) first printed the new 2026 production range on July 29 with its second-quarter results. Annual output is now guided at 384,000 to 386,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 5,000 boe a day at the midpoint from 378,000 to 382,000. Capital sits at the high end of a $2.0 to $2.1 billion budget. About 61 percent of that barrel is liquids.
On August 20, CFO Thanh Kang repeated the same range at an ATB Cormark Capital Markets event. Using US$75 oil and C$2 per gigajoule AECO, he put 2026 cash flow at about $4.3 billion and free cash flow at about $2.2 billion after the $2.1 billion program. That is a price deck, not a guarantee. AECO has been printing well under C$2 this summer. Oil has been firmer than $75.
What Q2 actually printed
Second-quarter production averaged 388,894 boe a day, about 8,000 above the company's internal forecast. Funds flow was $1.35 billion. Free funds flow was about $925 million after $430 million of capital. Net debt fell to $2.5 billion, 0.5 times annualized funds flow. Operating costs were $11.88 a boe. The company said that is about 13 percent lower since the Veren deal closed. Company-reported realized crude and condensate in the quarter was $127.82 a barrel. Treat that as their realization line, not as WTI.
Neutral read
WCP is on the listed producer list. A second guidance lift in one year is operating outperformance, not a new basin. The August 20 appearance did not raise the number again. It sold the July 29 number to a room. The risk is the deck. $2.2 billion of free cash flow needs something like $75 oil and a gas price Alberta is not paying right now. If AECO stays in the ones, the oil cut has to carry the print. Watch whether Q3 holds above 385,000 boe a day and whether the $2.1 billion capital actually stays at the high end.